Neighbors who had finally had a hard time sitting together to eat and nonsense suddenly took out their small books and turned over the old accounts. Recently, in the Transcaucasus region, located in the throat of the Eurasian continent, two feuding neighbors, Armenia and Azerbaijan, broke out in fierce military conflicts. The two sides successively used various heavy weapons with unprecedented firepower density. After a meal, the two countries also announced full-scale military mobilization, as if a great war was just around the corner.
There are many people talking about this matter online, but they basically use Turkey to support Azerbaijan and Russia to support Armenia to summarize this regional conflict. We often emphasize that as an adult, we must be comprehensive when looking at problems. It is too single-threaded to explain complex regional conflicts simply by using large countries to pay money and small countries to fight wars. If political and military conflicts can be explained in this way, there will be no problems that cannot be solved in the world, and world peace is just around the corner.
Today we will take this opportunity to talk about the entire Transcaucasus region, feel the intricacies of that area, and understand why this place attracts the attention of the world.
This place is also known as the South Caucasus, which is the area south of the Greater Caucasus Mountains, and to the north is the North Caucasus, which belongs to Russia. There are Chechen friends who like to find Russia unhappy.
The entire area of the Transcaucasus region is not large, almost as large as my country's Hebei Province, but the geographical location of this place is not ugly, bordering Russia in the north, Iran and Turkey in the south, and the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea on the east and west sides.
Moreover, this place has been a link between the East and the West since ancient times, and the commerce is very developed. I don’t know if God kissed this place. There are fertile land, abundant water resources, suitable for agricultural construction, and the climate is pleasant, rich in beautiful women, men and women here want to make a home and create people happily together.
Then, it has a hapless nickname-"Military must contend." This nickname is really unlucky for anyone on the stand.
Transcaucasian is like a young lady who wants to be good and can't help but stayed well at home. As a result, the big rich people in the city knocked on the door in turn, first the Roman Empire, then the Byzantine Empire and the Arab Empire, and then Mongolia. Empire, Persian Empire, Ottoman Empire and Russia. He couldn't beat and beat, and he couldn't run or run, so he was tragically devastated and the people didn't have a living.
In addition, the Transcaucasian region today is also an important buffer zone between the two major religious civilizations of Islam and Orthodox Church. The deposited historical grievances, complex ethnic composition, and sharp religious conflicts are simply anyone in the world who wants to engage in the trend. The dream region of raining countries.
Of course, if there is no benefit, everyone will not go there all the time. It is rarely done at the national level for pure charity or mischief. The national will is all atheists.
The reason that attracts everyone to come here is also rich in oil and gas resources, especially the Caspian Sea located on the east side of the Transcaucasus region. The proven oil reserves are about 150 billion to 200 billion barrels, which is called the "second Middle East."
And that Baku, now the capital of Azerbaijan, used to have the highest oil in the world. It was the birthplace of the Nobel family (that is, the Nobel who played explosives). It was also the head of state Hitler awakened in a dream. Land of energy.
And the word "Azerbaijan" is the Turkic word "fire country". They have a large amount of oil and natural gas under the ground, which are often sprayed out. If they are struck by lightning, they will produce the spectacle of "underground fire".
When the common people saw the fire was very energetic and miraculous, they kowtowed in a circle, and "worshiping the fire" came like this, and it also originated in that place. Later, it spread to Persia. The "Mingjiao" in Jin Yong's novels is Zoroastrianism. That's why there were "messengers from Persia holding sacred fire orders" and "Guangming Ding". In fact, Persia had been Islamized during the Ming Dynasty. I can send imams to Zhang Wuji.
Azerbaijan not only has oil and gas, but also has developed an energy pipeline that bypasses Russia. Everyone knows that Europe is fed up with Russia and will “stop the gas” at every turn. The climate in Europe is similar to northeast my country, and most cities do not have air conditioning. , The summer is not too hot, Shinobi is over.
However, the winter is deadly cold and depends on Russian natural gas. It is necessary to ensure energy security and want to pull a pipe from the Caucasus generation. This makes the Transcaucasus area extremely important to the Western world, so it is logical that it has become a stage for major countries to compete.
There are three countries recognized by the mainstream world in Transcaucasus, namely Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, which are the three brothers of Transcaucasus. The three beliefs are quite different. Georgia mainly believes in Orthodox Church, Armenia believes in Christianity, and Azerbaijan is Islam. The three brothers got together, like a big cannonball battle, and it was difficult to avoid conflict.
The Naka issue between Azerbaijan and the neighboring Armenia has always been on the road of development of Azerbaijan.
This is still a long story because the child has no mother (don’t ask where the mother of my child is, the mother blew herself up in 1991).
Naka is also a place name. It is located in the southwestern part of Azerbaijan. It has a small area and a population of less than 200,000, which is similar to the county seat of my hometown. Although the city is the territory of Azerbaijan, the Ryamenians make up the majority, and the Azerbaijanis are only a minority.
There is a question here. Since this city has a large population of Riamenians, why has it become an Azerbaijani city?
This matter has something to do with the "child damn"—that is, the Soviet Union.
When the Soviet Union was first established, everyone was besieged and beaten up. I really wanted to build a good relationship with the surrounding countries. After all, if we continue to fight, we may not even have the life span of 70 years. Against this background, the Soviet Union sent Lenin's close comrades-in-arms to China, and later joined Sun Yat-sen to establish the Whampoa Military Academy.
At the same time, on the border between the Soviet Union and Turkey, I hope to have a good relationship with Turkey. Look at the map. The Soviet Union and Turkey are bridged by Georgia and Armenia:
But Armenia has always had an antagonism with Turkey, and there have been many bloody massacres in history. The most serious occurred in 1915, when Turkey's predecessor, the Ottoman government, systematically carried out genocide, causing 1.5 million Armenians to lose their lives. You know, there were only 3 million Armenians in the world at that time. This was basically genocide. Nearly one of the two people was shot and killed.
Serious blood and deep enmity, never end.
So in order to prevent Armenia from messing with Turkey and preventing Armenia from making trouble (because Armenia had just set off a rebellion and was suppressed), Soviet Russia wanted to learn from the British practice of "divide and conquer", so it took a part of Armenia-the Naka region, Take it out and return to Azerbaijan.
There are many benefits to doing this. Armenia will lose a piece of land and its strength will be greatly reduced in the future. It will neither rebel nor provoke Turkey.
Although Azerbaijan has an extra piece of land, this piece of land is not the same with itself. If Azerbaijan wants to rebel, it has to prevent this group from telling the news, which is more burdensome.
Moreover, the two small countries have forged beams because of this land, and they are endlessly rioting.
On the whole, this operation is very professional and professional, and only the kind of professional pitted masters can do such wicked and effective things.
This kind of backlash has seriously hurt Armenia's feelings, just like a scumbag who talks sweetly to you today, and will marry someone else tomorrow, and it happened twice, and even the most nervous people are heartbroken.
However, at that time, both Azerbaijan and Armenia joined the Soviet Union, and the Naka issue became a domestic territorial contradiction. The problem was evaded in a vague way. Although the escape was comfortable, it could not solve the problem.
And before the Soviet Union died, the storm was already a little overwhelming. On February 22, 1988, a bloody clash broke out between the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis in the Naka region.
Five days later, in a place called Sumgait, a riot against the Armenians kicked off. The persecution lasted for three days. The Armenians were beaten, raped, killed, and divided, resulting in dozens of deaths. Two hundred people were injured (the actual number is much more than this should be).
Armenia and Azerbaijan began a large-scale mutual deportation within their respective borders. By November 1988, 180,000 Armenians and 200,000 Azerbaijanis had become refugees. Although the Soviet eldest brother worked hard to mediate and said, "Is there still a eldest brother in your eyes", it is not very useful.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Naka region became a problem between the two countries, especially the ethnic conflicts caused by the previous grievances, which put Armenia and Azerbaijan on a complete opposition, and even the big brother of mediation was gone.
In 1991, Azerbaijan announced an economic blockade of Armenia. Armenia was also a violent temper and simply opened the box of total war.
In 1992, Armenian military invaded Azerbaijan and opened up the land corridor to the Naka region. By 1993, Armenia and the Naka armed forces once again opened the second land corridor, and Azerbaijan was forced to carry out reserve war mobilization. By the end of 1993, 20% of Azerbaijan's land was occupied by Armenia, more than 30,000 Azerbaijanis were lost, more than 200,000 people were disabled, and nearly a million people lost their land and homes.
In 1994, under Russia's mediation, the two sides finally reached a ceasefire agreement. However, there are still many territories in Azerbaijan, especially the actual control of the Naka region in Armenia. In these areas, Armenia has expelled and cleansed Azerbaijanis. According to 2015 statistics, there are 145,053 people in the Naka region, among them Armenians. The number has reached 144,683, and most of the Azerbaijanis have been driven out, which also paved the way for the conflict in 2020.
During this process, Russia favored Armenia, and Azerbaijan was upset, but it didn't help.
Azerbaijan, whose head was beaten up, puts its hopes on other big countries. Azerbaijan has always been dissatisfied with Russia’s favoritism to Armenia. Therefore, it has actively explored relations with the West, especially with Turkey. People called "Turkic nation" are actually not a "nation" at all. Turkey has been making troubles all over the years and often borrows this nonsense theory). Their relationship has always been very good. When Azerbaijan became independent, Turkey was the first country to recognize it. Innocent friendship is thus forged.
Of course, friendship or friendship is not important, anyway, feelings between countries can be traded. The key is that Turkey and Azerbaijan soon established oil pipelines, and Turkey is extremely dependent on oil imports. Now they have common interests and the relationship has become more passionate.
Azerbaijan also wants to join NATO. Turkey is its link with NATO. Now it hooks up with Turkey, a good friend, and is very excited. It has repeatedly emphasized that its desire to integrate into Europe is a sincere desire. At the same time, it is also willing to provide the United States with logistical support and military bases, fully cooperate with the United States in the "war on terrorism" in the Middle East, and serve as a dogleg.
However, Europe and the United States have great opinions on Azerbaijan. They are gloomily carrying out democratization in Azerbaijan, accusing Azerbaijan of undermining democracy and human rights, and even planning to impose sanctions on Azerbaijan. This makes President Aliyev very upset. Is this going to play the "color revolution" with me? Immediately intensified the suppression of the opposition, which further led to the resentment of Europe and the United States. It is equivalent to a hot face with a cold ass.
And the most important issue of Naka must not be able to bypass Russia, and it is not fun to have a dispute with the ferocious Armenians. After Azerbaijan and Russia eased relations, the two sides signed a number of economic cooperation agreements. In 2011 and 2012, bilateral trade volume increased by more than 50% year-on-year.
Compared with Azerbaijan's insistence on independence, Armenia has completely fallen to Russia.
After independence, Armenia did not learn from Russia to play shock, but it also formed a pattern of oligarchs controlling the country. Natural resources were not as abundant as the two brothers next door, and its industrial structure was relatively simple. The development of attracting foreign capital was unusually slow.
Armenia has also become a country with a net population outflow. The domestic unemployment rate has reached more than 15%. According to statistics in 2018, Armenia’s poverty rate has reached 25.7%. More than half of Armenians do not live, work or build in Armenia.
After all, I robbed the territory of Azerbaijan at the beginning, and I was worried that people would snatch it back, and war broke out at any time. There are also many Armenians in the United States. I met several in Los Angeles. I checked the information and found that there were 500,000.
Armenia is the first country in history to designate Christianity as the state religion, so looking at Europe and the United States feels natural pleasing to the eye, just like you meet a fellow in a big strange city. Although you don’t know each other, everyone likes to eat noodles. You will soon There is a natural intimacy.
Armenia participated in NATO’s "Partnership for Peace Program", and also sent troops to participate in the United States’ counter-terrorism operations, and approved the "Comprehensive Expansion of Partnership Agreement" with the European Union.
These actions immediately aroused Russia's vigilance, brother, don't you understand the truth about who you eat and drink and who you are? As the country most controlled by Russia in the Transcaucasian region, Russia as a whole holds Armenia to death.
When the EU was preparing to "instigate" Armenia, Russia first increased the price of energy supplied to Armenia by 60%, and then sold Azerbaijan's $1 billion in arms. At the same time, it promised that Armenia would only join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union every year. A quarter of its GDP will be given assistance, which will eventually force Armenia to abandon its position as an EU associate country and join the Eurasian Economic Union.
In 2018, the "Velvet Revolution" took place in Armenia. The opposition clearly put forward anti-Russian slogans, including severing relations, withdrawing from the Eurasian Economic Union, and abolishing Russian military bases. However, when the opposition came to power, it immediately changed its face and promised to assume all its obligations to Russia. Europe and the United States are full of music, and Putin is the real big brother. It is not realistic for Armenia to get rid of Russia's control in the short term, after all, it cannot move away.
Whether it is Armenia or Azerbaijan, it is very clear that in order to solve the Naka problem, the participation of several major powers will inevitably be avoided. The powers also don't seem to want them to resolve this dispute. If it is resolved, there will be no trouble in the future.
For Russia, its focus is on its entire southern security buffer zone, so a stable Transcaucasus region is very important. In 2016, the Naka region also experienced fierce military conflicts, but it was urgently mediated by Russia. In the recent conflict, the President of Armenia and Putin canceled their trip to Moscow after the phone call. Russia probably does not want to support Armenia in trouble.
For Turkey, as long as it starts to work, it will firmly support Azerbaijan. In recent years, the native chickens have learned to play "blackmail", grasping the mentality that Europe and the United States don't want to make troubles, and they can make troubles whenever they find them. For example, in the case of Saudi Arabia's dismemberment of journalists, the native chickens seized strong evidence and kept threatening the United States. With other reasons, the United States eventually withdrew its troops from Syria.
This time Turkey has transferred 4,000 mercenaries from northern Syria into Azerbaijan. Although Turkey strongly denies it, it has been recognized by all countries.
Europe and the United States have still not given up on wooing Armenia. French President Macron jumped out to accuse Turkey of forcing it, while the Americans are busy with the election and watching the peak showdown between Trump and the new crown virus. Yesterday, I posted a video. The Americans are now paying close attention to the president’s illness. "The search rate of this term on the Internet has soared by 30,500%, and there is no time to care about these things in the Caucasus.
And this armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has no clear cause. Azerbaijan feels that Armenia occupies its territory. Armenia feels that that territory was originally its own. Over the past few years, there have been thousands of clashes on the border between the two sides. Upgraded to full mobilization. Anyway, sooner or later, if it doesn't break out now, it will break out next year.
It's just that the forces are slightly different. Armenia has the same population size as Beijing’s Changping District, Azerbaijan is similar to Da Zhumadian, and there is Turkey behind Azerbaijan.
Armenia is a bit no opponent. Almost all men who can carry guns have been mobilized. Now the women have been ordered to mobilize, but the girls are not hopeful. If Russia does not fully intervene, it is estimated that the Naka area will eventually be vacated. Their Armenian girl looks like this:
Except for Turkey, which is bound to stand in line, other countries hope to be resolved peacefully. After all, everyone has been tossed very badly by the new crown. It is not just a matter of death, but also a depression after the reduction of transactions.
Having said that, everyone will also understand that the relationship here is extremely complicated, and it is not as simple as "every little brother stands behind a big brother and engages in proxy war".
On the one hand, Armenia is the little brother of Russia, but it has been hooking up with Europe, wanting to join the European Union, but can't move, squeezing between Russia and Turkey. Moreover, it is Christianity and Russia is Orthodox. Many people can't tell the difference between them. They think that since the two believe in Jesus, they should belong to the same group. In fact, they are totally wrong.
Those who believe in Christianity different from one's own are called "infidels." For example, Muslin is an infidel.
Belief in the same God but different scriptures is called "heresy", such as Christianity and Eastern Orthodox.
Heretics are more hateful than heretics, and they have to be roasted slowly. The relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan is "heretical", and the relationship between Armenia and Russia is "heretical". In this sense, they are not that deep religiously. Armenia and Europe belong together. But Russia cannot condone Azerbaijan and the native chickens to destroy it.
In addition, Russia and Azerbaijan are not so stiff, after all, most of Azerbaijan’s weapons are bought from Russia.
So the saying on the Internet that "Russia and Turkey are engaged in proxy war" is not quite right. Russia has no time to do such a thing, and is busy fighting the epidemic. Some time ago, they did not have a vaccine and directly tested it on a large scale. I also gave Putin's daughter a shot, and the early results were not bad. Anyway, the vaccine did not kill people, and there was no disability, but after the vaccine, someone was infected with the new crown. I have not mentioned it in these two days.
In the past two days, I was mainly engaged in "persuading peace." Every day I shouted "Listen to me, don't fight" and so on. By the way, I pulled a few carts of supplies to Armenia to prevent it from being killed.
As for Turkey, it has basically clearly supported Azerbaijan. Although it is a mess of its own, the GDP scale is about the same as that of Sichuan, and the currency has fallen into a dog. GDP has shrunk a lot this year. By controlling a strait entrance, it has basically provoked the powers all over. First, it froze with Russia, then hit Russian planes, and later forced the United States to withdraw its troops from Syria.
Without even thinking about it, Turkey itself is still holding on, and it will not last long. It is estimated that it is privately imposing conditions on the powers, waiting for Russia or Europe to accept it.
Those countries are ready to empty the white wolves and use language as weapons without spending a dime to quell the war. I read the news today. The latest mediation failed. It is estimated that Turkey and Azerbaijan will soon have another offensive to express their dissatisfaction with the foreign powers. The benefits are not in place, and they are determined not to stop.
After seeing this, everyone should understand that this conflict is actually another total outbreak of "historical bad debts". It was buried a century ago. For this reason, there have been dozens of conflicts and will continue in the future. With the addition of Turkey's shit-chucking stick, it may increase the casualties and scale by one level.
But the overall impact will not be too great. After all, the populations of these two countries combined are not as large as Chengdu. It is a "Chengdu-level" conflict, and there is no way out. It may be over with international mediation in a few days, or it may be the same as in previous years. It may not be possible to stop each other until 2022. The powers will divide the oil and gas pipelines by the way.
After talking about their bad debts for a long time, I feel a little depressed myself. Generally, we can’t help but stand on one side of the story we tell, but this time there is really no good thing in the Caucasus, and I have no feelings for any of them. , Written very neutrally.
But there is also a problem.
When I was watching the history of the War of Resistance Against Japan, I saw the "918" and the "Seven-Seven Lugou Bridge Incident". I was always angry that the great powers of the United States and the Soviet Union stood on the sidelines as if they were all right. "It's easy to kill anymore" and so on. There is no sincerity at all. Why not sanction Japan? Why not send troops to beat Japan?
在观看抗日战争的历史时，我看到了“ 918”和“七七芦沟桥事变”。我一直很生气，因为美国和苏联的大国似乎都没事而站在场上。 “再容易杀了”，依此类推。根本没有诚意。为什么不批准日本？为什么不派兵击败日本？
In the past few years, I have read a lot of materials, and I am also an adult. I discovered that when Japan invaded China, American capitalists were actually very happy because their steel was unsalable. ), there is an urgent need for someone to help them, and Japan's war is what they need.
I don't have the anger that I used to be. After all, the real world is as cold and naked as the truth, and it doesn't change according to human preferences. Your interests are not the interests of the Americans, so why don't you have money to bleed?
The two goods I talked about today are a bit contradictory and not calm. They are easily used by all parties and then use their flesh and blood to make money for the powers.
This is something I often say. The rise of a big country and the dignity of the people are actually the same thing. Europe is now quiet and peaceful because it is still enjoying the "rising dividend" of the great voyages. Other countries are not so lucky. If a country is poor and weak, it is easy to be incited and exploited. Your flesh and blood reach their goals.
Only when the country is strong enough can we avoid such a desperate thing. After all, we also came from that step.
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